💥 The M&A Rollercoaster Just Hit a 90-Degree Drop

Listen up, dealmakers. Tech M&A was FINALLY showing signs of life after three brutal years. Q1 2025 saw 205 U.S. startup acquisitions – including Google’s $32B Wiz deal and ServiceNow’s $2.9B Moveworks play. The comeback was ON.

Then April 2nd happened.

“The world was a much different place in January than it was in March, and now we’re in a totally different place than we were three weeks ago.”

Thomas Earnest, Mintz Law Firm

⚠️ The Trump Tariff Tango: Market Chaos in 3 Acts

• April 2: “Liberation Day” tariffs send tech stocks plunging
• April 9: 90-day tariff pause announced (but the damage was done)
• Now: Every CFO’s worst nightmare – valuation limbo

Public tech giants – the usual M&A heavyweights – are suddenly playing defense. Their stocks got hammered, their supply chains are in question, and they’re hoarding cash like doomsday preppers.

📉 The Domino Effect Crushing Deals

Here’s why this tariff turmoil hits different:

• Valuation Whiplash: Late-stage startups still reeling from 2021’s frothy highs now face NEW uncertainty
• Acquirer Paralysis: Big tech won’t deploy cash when investors are spooked
• Timing Nightmare: Summer slowdown + Q4 holidays = tiny deal window

“You’re not gonna buy a house if you fear it’ll be worth 30% less next week. Same goes for M&A right now.”

Thomas Earnest

🦈 The Silver Linings Playbook

Not ALL deals are dead. Watch for:

• Distressed M&A: Startups that can’t raise will take haircuts (see: OpenAI’s rumored $3B Windsurf deal)
• AI Cash Kings: Well-funded private AI firms will go bargain hunting
• Creative Structures: More earnouts and stock-heavy deals as cash gets precious

But let’s be real – PitchBook’s Kyle Stanford nails it:

“The prospect of a stable 2025 seems pretty low at this point. We all know how much the news has changed in just two weeks.”

Kyle Stanford, PitchBook

🎯 The Bottom Line

The M&A rebound got T-boned by geopolitics. Deals WILL happen – but they’ll be smaller, messier, and fueled by necessity rather than optimism. Buckle up.