Is China’s AI Dominance a MYTH? Anthropic’s CEO Says YES

In a FIRE essay this week, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, dropped a bombshell on the debate about U.S. export controls and China’s AI ambitions. Spoiler alert: the rules are WORKING. Here’s why.

“DeepSeek produced a model close to the performance of U.S. models 7-10 months older, for a good deal less cost… but not anywhere near the ratios people have suggested.”

Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic

The DeepSeek vs. Claude 3.5 Showdown

Amodei didn’t hold back. He compared DeepSeek’s flagship model, DeepSeek V3, to Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Here’s the breakdown:

• Claude 3.5 Sonnet: Trained 9-12 months ago, costing a “few $10M’s.”
• DeepSeek V3: Trained in November/December 2024, still lagging in performance.

Translation? U.S. AI models are STILL ahead, even with China’s cost-cutting innovations.

Why Export Controls Are CRUCIAL

Amodei isn’t just talking smack—he’s laying out a STRATEGY. If the U.S. tightens export controls, China could be locked out of the AI arms race. But if we drop the ball? China could pivot to military AI dominance.

“The goal is not to deny China the benefits of AI… but to prevent them from gaining military dominance.”

Dario Amodei

The Trump Factor

Here’s where it gets spicy. The Biden administration’s export restrictions are set to kick in soon, but Trump could change the game. If he strengthens the rules, the U.S. could secure a long-lasting lead. If not? China could pour resources into military AI, leveraging its industrial base and strategic advantages.

OpenAI Joins the Fight

Anthropic isn’t alone in this battle. OpenAI is also pushing for aggressive policies to keep the U.S. on top. In a recent policy doc, they warned that without global funding, AI projects could flow to China, boosting the CCP’s global influence.

The Bottom Line

Amodei’s message is clear: U.S. export controls are WORKING, but the fight isn’t over. The stakes? Nothing less than global AI dominance. Will the U.S. step up, or will China seize the future? The clock is ticking.